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Thursday, May 08, 2008

The Five Mistakes Clinton Made

The following are from an interesting little article The Five Mistakes Clinton Made by Karen Tumulty

1. She misjudged the mood
That was probably her biggest blunder. In a cycle that has been all about change, Clinton chose an incumbent's strategy, running on experience, preparedness, inevitability — and the power of the strongest brand name in Democratic politics.

2. She didn't master the rules
Clinton picked people for her team primarily for their loyalty to her, instead of their mastery of the game.

3. She underestimated the caucus states
While Clinton based her strategy on the big contests, she seemed to virtually overlook states like Minnesota, Nebraska and Kansas, which choose their delegates through caucuses. She had a reason: the Clintons decided, says an adviser, that "caucus states were not really their thing."

4. She relied on old money
For a decade or more, the Clintons set the standard for political fund-raising in the Democratic Party, and nearly all Bill's old donors had re-upped for Hillary's bid. Obama relied instead on a different model: the 800,000-plus people who had signed up on his website and could continue sending money his way $5, $10 and $50 at a time. (The campaign has raised more than $100 million online, better than half its total.)

5. She never counted on a long haul
Clinton's strategy had been premised on delivering a knockout blow early. If she could win Iowa, she believed, the race would be over.

Now, of course, the question seems not whether Clinton will exit the race but when. She continues to load her schedule with campaign stops, even as calls for her to concede grow louder. But the voice she is listening to now is the one inside her head, explains a longtime aide. Clinton's calculation is as much about history as it is about politics. As the first woman to have come this far, Clinton has told those close to her, she wants people who invested their hopes in her to see that she has given it her best. And then? As she said in Indianapolis, "No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November." When the task at hand is healing divisions in the Democratic Party, the loser can have as much influence as the winner.


samlcarr said...

wow Jon, I guess that means that you do have a favorite in this race. Is the Clinton run just about over? About the only possibility left for her is that Barrack will do a major boo boo, and perhaps that's not too far fetched...

Jonathan Erdman said...

I think it is still not out of the realm of possibility that Hillary and Bill will steal it away from Barack.

samlcarr said...

Is that a fear, or a hope?

Theories now abound, one interesting one being that by fighting it out to the bitter end it lessens the chances of Obama winning against McCain, leaving Hilary with another shot in 4 years rather than 8! How cynical can one get?

So what do you think of the dream team - if it does work out? Somehow I think Obama could do better with someone else (Edwards, Pelosi?), but what do I know?

Jonathan Erdman said...

Hillary stealing it away from Obama would not be ideal.

I hope Obama wins the White House in November.

I can't see that Obama has anything to gain by putting Hillary on the ticket. She and Bill are too polarizing. Obama will energize the Democrat base merely by his presence as a legitimate candidate and an opportunity to take back the White House. The base is secure. So, Obama has the luxury of picking a conservative, clean-cut white guy with a nice smile who can "balance" the ticket.

McCain, on the other hand, is in trouble if Obama is the nominee b/c there will be many who traditionally vote Republican (like myself) who will be ready to cross over. So, McCain's got problems securing his base, which means he kind of has to pick a running mate who can hopefully bring home the bacon from the red states.

If Obama picked Hillary that would rally the conservative Republican base, simply to NOT have another Clinton in the White House. Picking Hillary would be very very bad, I would think. Take me, for example, I've got an Obama sign in my yard (mainly just to annoy my conservative friends), but I can't see myself with a sign that said Obama-Clinton.

chris van allsburg said...

i don't like McCain any more or any less than half the way I partially like Obama or maybe Clinton.

thank-you Bilbo.

So, I'm voting for Ron Paul out of protest against the Republican Party, which screwed us royally by putting us in a costly, endless war, and selling us out to foreign nations regarding our trade.

I wonder how much weed McCain could hide in those jowels?
That cheque you're getting in the mail? It's from C-H-I-N-A.

So, spend it on Chinese stuff at Walmart, y'all!

hoosier reborn said...

Right on with your summary between vps with Hillary and Obama. The question is who....he doesn't need Edwards because he'll win in the south-Pelosi would be as bad as Clinton. He needs military-not sure who that would be, Collin Powell? Let's not forget he had Roemer stomping for him in IN.

I couldn't bring myself to do a Obama/Hillary sign either.

Chris-exactly on those stimulus checks! Yeah, let's all go out and buy more junk from WalMart/China to further erode the american dollar-good way to boost the economy!

Melody said...

My stimulus check went towards paying back my loans! The other option was buying health insurance. Making good choices is boring.

Jonathan Erdman said...

Go Roemer. He is the kind of white-bread running mate that might work as a Veep.

Former Indiana congressman Tim Roemer, an Obama supporter, released this statement in response: “As a pro-life Catholic Democrat, one of the main reasons I endorsed Barack Obama is because he approaches issues from a non-ideological standpoint, and on issues like abortion, he deeply respects the views of folks on the other side of the argument. He believes that if we focus on what unites us, we can accomplish more than we ever will by retreating into our corners and shouting each other. National Right to Life is running these calls because they know that Senator Clinton will be the easier Democrat to run against in the general election—and this is their way of giving her a helping hand in this tough primary battle.” [msnbc]

From IndyStar.com:
Buoyed by the massive turnout and new voter registrations brought by last week's presidential primary, Democrats say this could be the year when Indiana overturns long-established voting habits and supports either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton in November.

Indiana Republican Party Chairman Murray Clark said he thinks conservative radio show host Rush Limbaugh -- who has encouraged listeners to vote for Clinton to create "chaos" in the Democratic primary -- had more impact than he had expected.

And, Clark said, some Clinton and Obama supporters have said they will not vote, or will vote for McCain, if their candidate doesn't get the nomination.

Indiana, he predicted, will still be the first state declared for McCain when the polls close Nov. 4.

Former U.S. Rep. Tim Roemer, D-Ind., who thinks Obama will soon be the party's nominee, disagrees.

"It's certainly not an easy lay-up. It's a three-point shot for us," Roemer said. "And Barack Obama is a good basketball player."